# Possible economic conflicts between powers in 2nd Age?



## Hisoka Morrow (Jul 29, 2020)

We all know that Numenor became the only superpower and owned the whole ocean of ME, then it comes to a big problem- Thucydides's Trap. Why no economic conflicts between those already existing powers-Noldor states. The Elvish states were a always a symbol of advanced civilization and great powers without certainly tremendous population, so we can presume commercial must take a heavy role for Elvish states in the whole 2nd Age. 

Now here comes to a big BUG, as since Ciryatur changed the Nemenor Imperial policy, the Numenor Empire Economic power for competition must have grown dramatically, causing a deadly threat to all commercial rivals. Of course we may assume that the Elvish states were commercial allies with the Numenor Empire in the first places, yet would Ciryatur's alternation of policy reverse their diplomatic status due to economic reasons?For examples, like depriving the original Elvish markets among the ME natives, and so on. (It's another matter the Elvish states had started their economic sanction against most of the ME natives due to Ulfang's work in the Similari War, yet the so-called norsemen might still be allies and markets with the elves)


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## Alcuin (Jul 30, 2020)

There is no example of Thucydides Trap in Tolkien’s work. You’ve been reading too many Peoples Liberation Army documents and too much _Global Times_. Sauron withdrew from the coastlands of Middle-earth to avoid the Númenóreans and concentrated his power inland. The conflict that grew between Sauron and Númenor had its origins in the First Age, when the Edain sided with the Eldar in their wars against Morgoth, and specifically for Sauron in his defeat at the original Minas Tirith, Finrod’s fortress on the Sirion, by Lúthien and Huan the Hound of Valinor. Sauron had no response to Númenórean coastal domination: he did not possess a fleet. 

You are viewing a story closely akin to the Norse sagas or the Finnish _Kalevala_ through a political lens. Tolkien does not discuss these matters except as they bear upon the longer tale: the jealousy of Fëanor toward his brother Fingolfin, the disruption of the polity of the Second House of the Edain by Túrin and later its destruction by his father Húrin, Tar-Aldarion changing the law of inheritance in Númenor, and the persecution of the Faithful by the Kings’ Men; and the estrangement of the Númenórean daughter states in the Third Age: a brief description outside _LotR_ in the story of the failed marriage of Tarannon Falastur and Queen Berúthiel that indicates the hostility toward and alienation from Gondor of the Black Númenórean states of Harad; the weakening of Arnor by dividing into daughter states, for which no clear explanation is ever given; the Kin Stife of Gondor and the subsequent rebellion of Umbar by the heirs of Castamir the Usurper; the rejection by Gondor of Arvedui’s bid for kingship, which led to the fall of Arthedain and the end of the House of Anárion. All of these events are the result of dynastic struggles and have precursors in the real world, as does the conversion of the Númenóreans from teachers and helpers of the Men of Middle-earth to their conquerors and oppressors in the second half of the Second Age, but _none_ of them has any relation to Thucydides Trap. You are searching for allegory or applicability where none exists.


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## Hisoka Morrow (Jul 30, 2020)

O...K...so even if the Númenóreans's lust to plunder wealth is not something like the "Capitalism-colonization-Imperialism" system, the marriage of Tarannon Falastur and Queen Berúthiel or Valacar and Vidumavi are not some complicated diplomatic Stratagems...😓😓😓😓....OK...OK....nvm, I think too much😓😓😓😓😅😅😅😅


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## Olorgando (Jul 30, 2020)

We must be very wary of back projecting what economics and trade mean in our days to earlier periods.
One period I have done some more extensive reading on is the end of the Bronze Age in the eastern Mediterranean. which would include as far inland as at least Mesopotamia during this time. The duration of the Bronze Age for this region can roughly be given as 3,000-1,200 or perhaps 1,100 BC.
Traded goods in this time were limited to what we would call luxury goods for a tiny segment at the top of any society, or war-critical goods, copper to a lesser degree than the much rarer tin, and also what one could call ready-made bronze "ingots" which could then be converted to what was needed by smiths. This was necessitated by the miniscule transport capacity and maneuverability of the ships of the time - perhaps compared to goods that (would have) needed transport by the supersonic passenger plane Concorde of recent times.


Hisoka Morrow said:


> ... Of course we may assume that *the Elvish states were commercial allies* with the Numenor Empire in the first places, yet would Ciryatur's alternation of policy reverse their diplomatic status due to economic reasons? ...


Ah, no, *definitely no*! Whatever the Elves (as perceived by JRRT) were, the were very definitely *not* what we would now call "capitalists"! "The capitalist" in M-e would, I think, be Saruman, while Sauron could (very imperfectly) be considered a combination of Hitler and Stalin. But as Alcuin stated above quite forcefully, this is being far too allegorical to have the ghost of a chance of meeting JRRT's approval!


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## Deleted member 12094 (Jul 30, 2020)

Alcuin said:


> You are searching for allegory or applicability where none exists.





Olorgando said:


> But as Alcuin stated above quite forcefully, this is being far to allegorical to have the ghost of a chance of meeting JRRT's approval!



Both Alcuin and Olorgando talk straight into my heart here.

I wouldn't like to be seen as fulminating against Hisoka Morrow in particular, of course. Only, and more generally put: I have noticed in the past few weeks that some contributors (who don't mean anything bad, I take it, but nonetheless...) offer personal creations and suppositions for Bible truths. That can have a confusing effect on other readers unless that kind of contributions are posted where they belong (fanfic etc).

_If it is not something JRRT has said or written, it's probably not right..._

Just my opinion! 😇


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## Hisoka Morrow (Jul 30, 2020)

Merroe said:


> Both Alcuin and Olorgando talk straight into my heart here.
> I wouldn't like to be seen as fulminating against Hisoka Morrow in particular, of course. Only, and more generally put: I have noticed in the past few weeks that some contributors (who don't mean anything bad, I take it, but nonetheless...) offer personal creations and suppositions for Bible truths.


It's OK, maybe I think too much, in addition...Ehhh...what do you mean Bible truths?🧐🧐🧐OK, I'm a bit confused maybe due to my oriental background😅😅😅, does it mean something certainly unbreakable or unchangeable in a already founded lore?😅😅



Olorgando said:


> Ah, no, *definitely no*! Whatever the Elves (as perceived by JRRT) were, the were very definitely *not* what we would now call "capitalists"! "The capitalist" in M-e would, I think, be Saruman, while Sauron could (very imperfectly) be considered a combination of Hitler and Stalin. But as Alcuin stated above quite forcefully, this is being far too allegorical to have the ghost of a chance of meeting JRRT's approval!


OK...I thought maybe the Elves might be highly competitive socialists or open-minded capitalists(Like Northern EU, Swiss) always with good restrain against all kinds of side effect of economical development(Like environment protection issues, wealth disparity and so on). Yet... if JRRT seems mentioned nothing about it, then consider it as an farce 😅😅😅


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## Olorgando (Jul 31, 2020)

Hisoka Morrow said:


> It's OK, maybe I think too much, in addition...Ehhh...what do you mean Bible truths?🧐🧐🧐OK, I'm a bit confused maybe due to my oriental background😅😅😅, does it mean something certainly unbreakable or unchangeable in a already founded lore?😅😅


"Bible truths" will vary even among Christian believers of the various denominations. More generically, it refers to the "holy book" of the three monotheistic religions of Near- (European view) or Middle- (American view) Eastern derivation:
- for Judaism, the Tanakh or Hebrew Bible
- for Christianity simply "the" Bible, Old and New Testament (Old being almost identical to the Tanakh)
- for Islam the Qur'an.

In varying degrees, these books are considered "unchangeable".
Oddly, this did not hinder all three beliefs from adding later writings of nearly, at times entirely (and one does get the impression of occasionally greater) equal status: the Talmud, "Tradition", and the Hadiths, respectively.

JRRT is definitely rooted in Roman Catholicism, a conservative one at that. As I have posted frequently, knowing this is certainly helpful for understanding (fine) details of his writing. But it does not prevent Protestant or Eastern Orthodox Christians, or even western agnostics / atheists from understanding much of it. Because JRRT wrote about human universals which he himself may not have been able to clearly see as such from his perspective (which also was definitely influenced by the Northern "heathen" Mythology).

Assuming these human universals, it should come as no surprise that people of other belief systems could also find things seeming familiar. Be it the (subcontinental) Indian system, mainly Hinduism but also it derivates Jainism (remaining a small minority) or Buddhism (after having been supported by the the Mauryan emperor Ashoka and his descendants from perhaps 260-180 BC, also was reduced to a small minority, but flourished elsewhere), or the Chinese one encompassing Kǒng Fūzǐ and supposedly Laozi. So while there my be an agreement of sorts on some "human universals", the trains of thought arriving at these conclusions are probably quite disparate. Which can lead to confusion among those talking about them, but having arrived by different paths, all somewhat at least alien to the others. Even when we believe we agree, this may not be the case in some non-trivial aspects.


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## Hisoka Morrow (Aug 4, 2020)

Merroe said:


> That can have a confusing effect on other readers unless that kind of contributions are posted where they belong (fanfic etc).
> 
> _If it is not something JRRT has said or written, it's probably not right..._
> 
> Just my opinion! 😇


Oh crypt, so...even if my fanfic are too over? Come on, all my stuff in fanfic are total...ehh at least big stuff(EX:Ondoher's battle's result VS the Wainriders, etc) corresponding to JRRT's work...ehhh at least not too much contradiction...come on JRRT just left a bunch of space for readers' imagination, so can you just let me pass? 😅 😅 😅
So... I wonder how much have you read my fanfic. ???



Olorgando said:


> "Bible truths" will vary even among Christian believers of the various denominations. More generically, it refers to the "holy book" of the three monotheistic religions of Near- (European view) or Middle- (American view) Eastern derivation:
> - for Judaism, the Tanakh or Hebrew Bible
> - for Christianity simply "the" Bible, Old and New Testament (Old being almost identical to the Tanakh)
> - for Islam the Qur'an.
> ...


Thanks for support...so...YEAH!!!Maybe JRRT's lore's account will vary as well...this means my stuff are...😈😈😈😈. May I claim that the stuff I provide aren't just simply personal creations and suppositions anymore?😅😅😅


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## Deleted member 12094 (Aug 4, 2020)

Dear Hisoka Morrow! I have _*absolutely nothing *_against your stories! I would regret it much, if I brought that impression on you.

Just let your imagination flow; as long as it goes into the spot where fanfic belongs you are doing just fine.

The point I tried to make earlier was that IMHO personal suppositions are not to be presented as confirmed facts in sections where JRRT literature is discussed.

Have fun !


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