# Birthyears of Isildurs children



## Dixie le Dix (Feb 21, 2018)

Hello All

New to this forum.

I have been posting an extended version of events in the second age at fanfiction. When you run through the events in details year for year some information is hard to find an explanation for...

The Numenoreans lived for a long time, and they enjoyed their youth only getting married after vel over a hundred years. Then they got children typically with ten years or so in between according to Unfinished Tales.

The lifespan and possible the years between the children declined at the end of the age, but Gimilzor was still 75 years old when he got Palantir.

The house of Valandil continued the longer life (possible a gift for being loyal to the Valar - but this is not the subject). Elendil got Isildur when he was 90, and Anarion when he was 100, and Isildur get his oldest son in 3299 at an age of 90. That all makes sense, but...

Isildur gets his next son in 3339 (40 years after), third son in 3379 (80 years after) and his last son Valandil in 3430 - 131 years(!!!) after the birth of his first son (in an age of 221). No other Numenorean had children in such a high age, not even the first kings, though Tar-Amandil gets close (185)...

Well maybe Isildur could - but what about his wife??? - in a time where normal Numenoreans lived around 200 years???

If you compare to Anarion. He was 99 when he got his fourth child...

Does anyone know if this is a simple mistake by Tolkien (who was as I understand very precise on numbers like dates) - or maybe Isildur had two wives? or more ...

/Dixie


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## Alcuin (Feb 22, 2018)

Welcome to TTF, *Dixie le Dix*. 

I have an essay on the decline of the lifespans of the Númenóreans with footnotes to the sources. (There is a similar one on the Stewards of Gondor and Lords of Dol Amroth. It isn’t in TTF, but you can find a discussion of it here.) The Lords of Andúnië were probably still living to well over 300 years at the end of the Second Age. Elendil’s grandfather probably died at about 362 years; his father Amandil was 295 when he sailed to Valinor to warn the Valar of Ar-Pharazôn’s intention to invade _and_ beg that his family and followers be spared. Elendil was 322 years old when he died in battle beside Gil-galad against Sauron. Meneldil son of Anárion died aged 280, while Valandil died aged 260. 

Until the reign of Tar-Ancalimon, when the lifespans of the Númenórean kings began to shorten because of their rebellion, the average age of a ruler when his (or her) first child was born was 157 years 4 months; by the time of Ar-Gimilzôr, this had declined to 83 years 8 months. 

The decline in the lifespans of the Lords of Andúnië and the Kings of Númenor can be calculated by counting the number of Lords of Andúnië found in _Peoples of Middle-earth_ and the ages of those Lords of Andúnië whose ages we know at the end of the Second Age, along with the dates of birth, reign, and death of the Kings of Númenor found in _Unfinished Tales_. (This is explained in excruciating detail in the essay.) I _strongly_ suspect Tolkien plotted this out on paper, calculated the slope and intercept as an algebra problem, and then added some variance in the ages of the Dúnedain by hand so that some were a little older or above the line, some a little younger or below the line. He apparently did the same for the kings of Arnor and Gondor, with the kings of Gondor living longer. As I recall, the reason given for this was the Gondor had the White Tree; but it may also have been that the climate of Gondor was more like that of Númenor, while Arnor was colder. (I think Armenelos was more or less due west of Umbar, but wetter. Karen Wynn Fonstad presented an estimate of the latitude of Númenor relative to Middle-earth in _Atlas of Middle-Earth_, but I have not referenced it writing this post, and may be in error.) Aragorn’s ancestors, the kings of Arnor, Arthedain, and Chieftains of the Dúnedain, were all plotted along the Arnor declining lifespan, as was Aragorn in the first editions of _Lord of the Rings_, when he lived to be 190 years; but in later editions, his lifespan was corrected to the decline of the Kings of Gondor, 210 years. 

As you point out, Valandil was born in Second age 3430, when Isildur was 221, and was 10 years old when his father died. Valandil, like quite a few people I know, was a “surprise”, a “bonus child”. It’s reasonable to assume that Isildur’s wife was also from Andúnië, and if she was also a descendent of Silmariën (as seems likely: look at Tolkien’s hobbit family trees), she would have a life expectancy similar to his and probably a little longer. (Women tend to live about 6% longer than men.) 

Consider this, too: Aragorn lived to be 210. His son Eldarion was born about Fourth Age 30, when Aragorn was about 140 years old. Eldarion was 70 when he came to the throne, and I believe he ruled 100 years (which put him on the decline for the shorter-lived Kings of Arnor, while his father had lived along the longer-lived plot for the Kings of Gondor). 

As you note, most of the first 16 kings of Númenor were well into the mid-100s before their first child was born. Tar-Atanamir was 186 years old when his first child, Tar-Ancalimon was born; Tar-Atanamir refused to surrender his life, and died aged 421, though bereft of clear mind. 

If we look at life expectancies in the US, UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Russia, and Norway, we get median life expectancy of a little over 81 years. To make things easy, let’s just assume it is 81 years, which is pretty respectable, and makes calculations easy. Most people (if they don’t have an accident or some serious heritable illness) will live to see their grandchildren; some people will live to see their great-grandchildren. (Yes, I know there are exceptions, but right now it’s uncommon for people to see their great-great-grandchildren.) This is kind of gruesome, but for argument’s sake, assume we generally die about the time our great-grandchildren are born. So you can expect your first child to be born about the time you’re 27, your first grandchild about the time you’re 54. And if your life expectancy is 81, and these blessed events occur earlier in life, you can expect to visit with your great-grandchildren, or hope you live longer than average. For the Dúnedain, the point in their lives when they first have children more or less matches this. And if I’ve handled the numbers correctly, for Isildur, having a child at 221 is like having a child at age 53 for us. I have friends who were born when their fathers were in their 50s, their mothers normally in their 40s (but maybe 50s, too), and their oldest siblings either already had children or had them shortly afterwards, so that the youngest child and the oldest grandchild were the same age; sometimes the oldest grandchild is even a little older than the youngest child. If you study genealogy, this happened from time to time before the mid-20th century. Elendur, Isildur’s oldest, apparently did not have any children, but that was probably because except for Valandil, he and his brothers had been away with their father in the War of the Last Alliance. 

Is that helpful?


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## Dixie le Dix (Feb 22, 2018)

yes helpful thanks...
I know the pages you refer to around decline of the lifespan - great work...

You state that 221 is equal to 53 our days, but that make 131 equal to 32 years. so that is starting at 21. As you state, possible but not very likely (not with the same wife anyway ). However my point was more that Isildur's children in this sense differs much from the few other examples of sibling dates we know of (like to first Numenoreans) . In fact, births and life spans are quite predictable once you notice the decline as you point out - but not for Isildur. (and perhaps also Elendil, who was 322 when he died - he was a very old man when he fought at Dagorlad - and fough well )

As you point out Elendur was 141 when he died - that is also interesting. He should/could have had children, but this is not mentioned (and hardly likely if you consider the succession) 

Same for Earnur of Gondor. He was 122, when he died childless. He father was 45 when he got him and he was apparently the only child. Odd that the people of Gondor waited until their king was missing in Minas Ithil  to address the problem of succession (did they believe he would come back AND have a family?

Do you believe Tolkien was aware of theses devisations? 

Dixie

P.S. How do you get to the number 362 - regarding Numendils age?


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## Alcuin (Feb 22, 2018)

Answering questions in reverse order…

For Númendil’s age, I counted the number of generations of Lords of Andúnië and Kings from the House of Elros, assumed they both began with the same mean lifespan at the end of the reign of Tar-Ciryatan (12th generation from Elros), and ratioed the known lifespan of the Kings to fit the number of generations of the House of Valandil (of Andúnië). So I don’t know Númendil’s age, I know the slope of the declining lifespan, and approximately how old he should have lived using that method. It may or may not be correct, but it does fit what Tolkien wrote. From that equation, Amandil should have lived to be approximately 355 years old, or 60 years beyond the Downfall of Númenor: I suspect he was a kind of prisoner on Tol Eressëa until he died, if Tol Eressëa can be called a prison. Elendil the Tall should have lived to be about 349 years, so when he died at 322, he was indeed quite advanced in years; but Tolkien tells us that Númenóreans had, in effect, a very long “middle age”, after which they began to age like other men and decayed quickly in the last ten years or so of their lives. The same equation gives me an estimated lifespan of about 343 for Isildur, who died aged 234. 

In my essay “Decline of the Lifespans of the Númenóreans”, there is a link in Appendix I to a second essay, “Estimating the Lifespans of the Númenórean Kings”, which goes through the mechanics, with full presentation of data, assumptions, and calculations, along with some conclusions from the exercise. 

Tarannon Falastur, Narmacil I, and Eärnur all died childless. Falastur married the notorious Queen Berúthiel, who seems to have maintained the old Sauronian worship of the King’s Men or Black Númenórean: it appears their marriage was either never consummated or at least there were never any children for some reason. Narmacil I seems to have been indolent: he and his brother and successor, Calmacil, left everything in the hands of Calmacil’s energetic son, Rómendacil II. Eärnur simply never bothered to marry. 

The people and Council of Gondor knew they had a succession problem. Eärnur doesn’t seem to have cared. He was a great military leader but a lousy civil leader, a better champion than a king. But the devastation caused by the internecine warfare of the Kin Strife meant that another civil war in Gondor would spell the doom of the kingdom. (That seems to have been the underlying cause of strife in Arnor.) So they maintained the peace and military security by submitting the rule of the kingdom to the steward “until the king should return.” 

I think Elendur failed to sire children because he was at war. 



Dixie le Dix said:


> You state that 221 is equal to 53 our days, but that make 131 equal to 32 years. so that is starting at 21.


I don’t follow your math. The ratio of 221:53 :: 131:31 (or 32) is correct, but I don’t understand where 21 fits. As for births, we know that Elrond and Celebrían married in Third Age 109, and Elladan and Elrohir were born 21 years later; Aragorn and Arwen did not have a child for 30 years (for Aragorn, 120 years old, equivalent to 46 years for a man with a life expectancy of 81); and Elrond and Celebrían did not have Arwen until Elladan and Elrohir were 132 years old. We don’t know how many more years transpired until Aragorn and Arwen had daughters, but I think the Númenórean rulers (including the Lords of Andúnië) may have waited many years between children. Tar-Meneldur’s wife, Tar-Aldarion’s mother, was a descendent of Elros and had the longevity of her house: she warned Aldarion that Erendis did not, and that he should take that into account; he refused to do so, and in my humble opinion, mistreated the woman who loved him. I disagree that Isildur’s wife was not of the House of Valandil (of Andúnië): I think she had a similar lifespan to his, if for no other reason than that there is no mention of his marrying twice; but that is opinion, and your opinion is as good as mine without further proof. I would point out, however, that the House of Valandil (of Andúnië) was probably rather large by the end of the Second Age: it’s likely the people of Andúnië were living longer lives than the rest of the Númenóreans, whose lifespans at that point I estimate at about 178 years, because they had not as a whole rebelled against the Valar nor abandoned the more Elvish way of life their forefathers had learned in Beleriand and their friends from Tol Eressëa encouraged during the intervening millennia. 

By the way, there is a descendant family tree for Elros in _Unfinished Tales_ that includes birth years for a number of his descendants, including younger siblings. The distances between siblings look to be about 10 years apart. I don’t care to tabulate the data, but anyone who does and has Excel or Open Office or the like should calculate the average (mean), median, mode, standard deviation, and kurtosis (which is obscure but awfully useful!).


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## Dixie le Dix (Feb 23, 2018)

You state that 221 is equal to 53 our days, but that make 131 equal to 32 years. so that is starting at 21. - meaning Isildur age in modern human years for his first child


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## Alcuin (Feb 23, 2018)

For one man with a mean life expectancy of 343 years (Isildur) and another with a median life expectancy of 81 (a modern European), the ratios are 
(221 / 343) = (52 / 81) , approximately
(131 / 343) = (31 / 81) , approximately

How does 21 come into the picture? For a man with a life expectancy of 343 years to have his first child at 131 years to match to an age of 21 at the birth of another man’s first child, the other fellow must have a life expectancy of only 55. I’m not trying to pick, but I don’t understand the math that gets you to 21.


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